While the national media has focused on control of the House and Senate, climate techies should take a careful look at some major changes at the state level that generally augur well for our sector. We’re going to focus on the four M’s - Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Minnesota - where a green wave is in full effect.

All four were already frankly doing quite well on driving forward a climate agenda - bipartisan progress is actually possible - but all have now gone from split government control to full Democratic control. Climate policy should go into overdrive in all four states.
Here’s the Gist: 

MICHIGAN - EVs and distributed generation could get a boost

Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) was reelected and the legislature is in Democratic control for the first time in 40 years. Whitmer released her Michigan Healthy Climate Plan last year via executive order, which, without a friendly legislature, was more aspirational than reality. But that should now change. The plan would reduce greenhouse emissions 52% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
We expect Michigan goes full throttle on a variety of clean energy issues, but especially electric vehicles and batteries. Last April, Michigan announced $500 rebates for Level 2 chargers and $2,000 rebates for EVs. As the historical engine of US auto manufacturing, Michigan may now become one of the most pro-EV states in the US.
Also, according to one well-placed MI source, the current 1% cap on distributed generation, which is in statute, could finally get lifted or at least expanded by the all Dem legislature. This could be “big” for distributed energy companies who may have been reluctant to enter the market in the past due to the capped opportunity.

MARYLAND -  Onwards to electrification and resiliency

Gov.-elect Wes Moore (D) ran with a climate platform and detailed climate plan with the goal of ensuring Maryland runs on 100% clean energy by 2035. He’ll work to reduce 60% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. He also emphasized the importance of climate resiliency with a focus on adding seawalls and reducing flooding. Moore will appoint a new Chair of the Public Service Commission (PSC) early next year, which will change the focus and orientation of the PSC.
Maryland’s all Democratic legislature already passed ambitious climate legislation to cut emissions to net zero by 2045. The bill didn’t ban natural gas hookups by 2024 as initially proposed, but don’t be surprised if this comes back up in 2023. The all Democratic government will likely push faster to get the state off natural gas and to electrify everything.

MASSACHUSETTS - The natural gas transition will accelerate

While Massachusetts switched from a Republican to a Democratic Governorship (and even more historically to an all-female executive suite), the state already had one of the most ambitious climate platforms. Outgoing Republican Gov. Charlie Baker signed a progressive bipartisan law, the 2021 Climate Act, last year requiring the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.
Gov.-elect Maura Healey (D), the current Attorney General, ran on climate and said that implementing that Act would be her biggest focus. If there is one area that may go faster now, it’s the move away from natural gas. As AG,  she asked FERC to take a harder look at natural gas pipelines, blocked two gas pipelines and asked the Department of Public Utilities to investigate the future of natural gas utilities.
Healey is also gung-ho on the already stated goal of installing one million heat pumps by 2030. Electrification will be the name of the game for the next four years. Look as well for a lot of attention on affordability and equity during this transition.

MINNESOTA - Turning the Governor’s climate plan into law

Democrats took control of the state legislature and Gov. Tim Walz was reelected. Walz already unveiled an ambitious climate plan in September. We expect that the legislature will codify sections of this climate plan next year during the legislative session. This could include reviving Walz’s call for carbon-free electricity by 2040, and revisiting previous plans to adopt a clean fuels standard. The latter goes hand-in-hand with Walz’s vision for 20% of cars to be electric by 2030, as well as cutting vehicle emissions by 80% by 2040, so expect a big push on EVs in Minnesota.

A few other hot takes:
Nevada headwinds - Nevada’s climate plan is likely on hold for the next four years under Republican Gov.-elect Joe Lombardo. But the Democratic legislature should prevent any major anti-climate policy from getting enacted, and outgoing Gov. Sisolak’s appointees to the Public Service Commission aren’t up for a few years.
Mixed bag in Arizona - Katie Hobbs, Arizona’s Democratic Gov.-elect, ran on a platform focused on building a resilient Arizona with a big focus on water management. As of now, the GOP has a one-seat advantage in Senate and House legislatures that would require bipartisan support to make clean energy a priority. Arizona’s two open Corporation Commission spots went to candidates who argued against subsidies for EVs and chargers and vowed to keep California-style energy policies out of Arizona.
Steady Eddy in New Mexico, Maine, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin -Democratic Governors were reelected in all four states with solid climate agendas; both New Mexico and Maine have democratic legislatures so progress should continue there; Wisconsin also avoided a Republican supermajority in the legislature so Gov. Evers will be able to veto any anti-climate legislation. PA Gov.-elect Shapiro has a somewhat more friendly legislature with Democrats taking house control, but the Senate remains Republican so there’s unlikely to be any big climate legislation.
Were you surprised by the green wave? What do you think midterms mean for the climate?