The Ad Hoc Gist: The Inauguration is Over. Now What? Predictions for 2025
Artwork by Anne Bailey of Latitude Media. (From L to R: Giana Amador, Bill Clerico, Elizabeth Turnbull, and Stephen Lacey)
2025 is off to quite a start.
LA is on fire. Homes, schools, and entire neighborhoods have vanished. The loss is profound for so many. We all know someone affected.
Last week, the Biden administration doled out its final climate billions before exiting stage left. On Monday, the Trump administration released a flurry of executive orders launching an all-out assault on Biden’s climate legacy.
In this month’s Gist, we turn to allies to share their predictions for the year. From resilience to AI to carbon removal, there’s a lot on the docket. One thing is certain: 2025 will not be dull.
In AHG news, we’re thrilled to welcome Chandler Mesirov to the AHG San Francisco team. And don’t miss our upcoming wildfire and resilience tech virtual event with Latitude Media on January 29th.
Jim
The inauguration is over. Now what? Predictions for 2025
Prediction: Climate capital pivots to resilience & adaptation
Weather disasters costing more than $1 billion have increased sevenfold since the 1980s. Just a few weeks into 2025, the LA fires are forecast to be costliest in U.S. history, with estimates of over $200 billion in losses. We're already seeing the impact of mega disasters across the country: utilities like PG&E, PacifiCorp, and Hawaiian Electric face mounting climate-related costs, while insurance companies are leaving high-risk markets altogether. This is not sustainable; these industries need new solutions.
Meanwhile, carbon market volatility has created uncertainty for decarbonization efforts. And the possibility of shifting climate policy under the Trump administration could further disrupt progress, and lead to more global warming.
These challenges are creating new opportunities for venture capital. This year VC investors will back technologies and services that safeguard communities, critical infrastructure, and supply chains. From wildfire detection to ag-tech, resilience and adaptation solutions can save billions of dollars for companies and governments while helping communities thrive in this new era.
Prediction: Carbon removal goes local
Carbon removal is at an inflection point. For a long time, the technology’s story was mostly told by climate models and researchers in laboratories. But this year we will see new carbon removal projects deployed in communities across the United States.
The industry's growing maturity and federal incentives are driving these deployments, which will reduce costs, advance the technology, and build local familiarity with carbon removal projects. These real-world implementations, coupled with their economic benefits, will help secure community support and overcome potential political resistance.
These benefits will become less theoretical in 2025 with new analysis and substantial results to point to. States will adopt more ambitious policies to harness carbon removal to meet their climate goals, while also capitalizing on core economic benefits like increased agricultural yields, wildfire reduction, and job creation.
Prediction: The EV ecosystem is tested, and demonstrates quiet strength
The U.S. electric vehicle market continued to grow in 2024. But the Trump administration could kill President Biden’s tax credits for EVs and charging infrastructure that have boosted the market in recent years.
And yet, a near-term slowdown in sales growth doesn’t spell long-term failure. Traditional automakers will impress consumers with dependable new EV models, as they’ve done recently with the Honda Prologue, Chevrolet Equinox, and Kia EV9. More charging stations will be installed, thanks to already-deployed Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding. And electric utilities will continue to invest in the distribution grid to support home charging and electrified transportation.
If we look beyond the media narrative to the market fundamentals, the long-term trajectory for transportation electrification is clear: sustained growth driven by automaker innovation, expanding infrastructure and strengthening grid capacity. The work ahead is less glitz, more grindstone — but we’re in this for the long haul, and 2025 is an opportunity to demonstrate that commitment.
Prediction: AI is the flashpoint of Trump's energy agenda
When President Trump first took office, he promised to save the coal industry. The reality? The coal industry shed nearly 12 gigawatts of capacity, thanks to a combination of flat demand, abundant natural gas, and cheap renewables.
Under Trump's second term, the market dynamics are much different. The rise of AI has unleashed a hunger for electricity that has upended the power system. Industry forecasts suggest data center power consumption could double or triple within five years — the biggest surge in electricity demand since the post-war industrial boom.
This creates a fascinating tension in the energy transition. Tech giants champion zero-carbon energy, but faced with immediate needs for massive, reliable power, they're embracing a "whatever it takes" approach that includes fossil gas alongside renewables. Even Elon Musk is building more gas to fuel his AI ambitions.
This bodes well for Trump's "energy dominance" agenda. Where utilities once retired fossil fuel plants ahead of schedule, they're now scrambling to keep existing generation online while building new capacity. The clean energy buildout continues, but instead of replacing fossil fuels, new solar and wind may barely keep up with surging demand.
The big question: is this explosive growth real, or another tech bubble? Well, likely both. Tech companies are investing hundreds of billions in computing infrastructure — even if AI isn't producing meaningful revenue yet. The next few years will determine whether this AI-driven power boom accelerates or hinders the clean energy transition.
News from Our Network
From our clients:
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Amid ongoing devastation caused by the LA wildfires, Latitude Media called out the work of Technosylva's wildfire detection and prediction tech, and Technosylva also announced a strategic partnership to “revolutionize wildfire risk analysis for the insurance industry.”
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Gridware announced the close of a $26.4 million Series A led by Sequoia — a notable generalist fund backing the resilience tech startup.
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Google is partnering with Charm Industrial to draw down 100,000 tons of carbon through 2030.
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Rondo Energy announced a first-of-its-kind coalition of clean energy companies to accelerate the development of thermal battery solutions with five initiating partners.
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HomeBoost was featured in The Cool Down for its home energy platform that helps homeowners save on their utility bills.
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Nextracker shipped and delivered the first 100% domestic content solar trackers to the U.S. market.
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Span, TS Conductor, VEIR, Aeroseal, and Ebb Carbon were named to the Cleantech Group Global 100 list
From friends and colleagues:
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On February 18-19 and June 23-25, join LGBTQ+ climate investors, corporate sustainability directors, and startup leaders at the Queer Decarbonization Summit.
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A new report from Rhodium Group says that the carbon removal industry could provide 130,000 U.S. jobs in the next decade.
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ev.energy was selected to receive a Connected Communities $6 million grant from DOE.
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The Political Climate podcast hosts weigh in on President Biden’s climate legacy.
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Tailwind cofounder Emilie Mazzacurati appeared on the Climate Proofers podcast to talk about the market opportunity for climate adaptation innovation.
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Elephant Energy has installed over 1,000 residential heat pumps, collectively preventing more than 4,000 tons of carbon emissions.
Jobs in our network:
Send us your job openings in cleantech policy, startups, and utilities, and we'll put them in next month's Gist.
Featured Roles:
- Aeroseal: VP of Policy and Market Development (U.S. Remote / Midwest or East Preferred)
- Gridware: Director of Policy and Regulatory Affairs (San Francisco, CA / Hybrid)
All Roles:
- Charm Industrial: Regulatory Policy Lead (Fort Lupton, CO / Washington, DC / San Francisco, CA / Hybrid)
- Elephant Energy: Product Marketing Manager (U.S. Remote)
- GridX: Customer Success Manager (U.S. Remote)
- Lithos Carbon: Head of Finance (Bellevue, WA / New York, NY / Hybrid)
- Pano: State Government Affairs Manager (San Francisco, CA / Remote)
- Rondo: Product Cost Specialist (Alameda, CA / Kansas City, KS / Houston, TX)
- Stripe: Market Development Lead, Climate (San Francisco, CA)
- Sunrun: Federal Affairs Manager (Washington, DC)
- Technosylva: Sales Account Executive for Wildfire Risk Mitigation Software - Utilities (U.S. Remote)
- truCurrent: Program Director, Energy Transitions (Washington, DC / Hybrid)
- Tyba: People Operations Generalist (San Francisco, CA / Remote)
- VEIR: Director of Business Development, Commercial & Industrial (Woburn, MA / Hybrid)
Find us:
- Jim Kapsis will be in San Diego on January 27 for the opening reception of the 2025 Cleantech Forum.
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On January 29, Ad Hoc is co-hosting a virtual event with Latitude Media on building resilience for utilities around wildfire risk. Moderated by our partner Julia Hamm, this free webinar will feature CEOs of top wildfire technology companies Technosylva, Gridware, Treeswift, and Resilient Structures, and will be a highly relevant conversation in light of the LA fires.
- The Ad Hoc team will be in SF the week of February 4 for our team retreat.